Important dates:
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | 12344 | 55419 | 449 | 113 | 281 |
| Aug 22 | 12381 | 55492 | 442 | 113 | 283 |
| Aug 23 | 12381 | 55531 | 450 | 113 | 245 |
| Aug 24 | 12423 | 55589 | 454 | 114 | 253 |
| Aug 25 | 12475 | 55664 | 456 | 114 | 284 |
| Aug 26 | 12526 | 55774 | 459 | 114 | 335 |
| Aug 27 | 12576 | 55879 | 460 | 114 | 364 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 8 | 3.0 | 7.4% | 27 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 3.1 | 8.2% | 30 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 7.7 | 20.3% | 74 | 0.35% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 8.3 | 21.2% | 77 | 0.57% |
| 40-49 | 5 | 3.4 | 9.9% | 36 | 0.34% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 5.7 | 15.9% | 58 | 0.46% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 3.3 | 8.5% | 31 | 0.27% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.3 | 8.5% | 31 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 50 | 37.9 | 100% | 364 | 0.35% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | 7999 | 32466 | 333 | 97 | 199 |
| Aug 22 | 8024 | 32495 | 325 | 97 | 202 |
| Aug 23 | 8044 | 32523 | 333 | 97 | 188 |
| Aug 24 | 8058 | 32576 | 335 | 97 | 186 |
| Aug 25 | 8088 | 32626 | 336 | 98 | 212 |
| Aug 26 | 8117 | 32700 | 337 | 98 | 214 |
| Aug 27 | 8133 | 32724 | 337 | 98 | 225 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 2.6 | 10.7% | 24 | 0.31% |
| 10-19 | 0 | 3.0 | 12% | 27 | 0.32% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 3.4 | 13.8% | 31 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.7 | 20% | 45 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.6 | 18.2% | 41 | 0.53% |
| 50-59 | 4 | 1.7 | 9.3% | 21 | 0.22% |
| 60-69 | 0 | 2.0 | 8.4% | 19 | 0.23% |
| 70+ | 2 | 1.7 | 7.6% | 17 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 16 | 22.7 | 100% | 225 | 0.35% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | 6102 | 21781 | 296 | 85 | 118 |
| Aug 22 | 6116 | 21803 | 289 | 85 | 123 |
| Aug 23 | 6130 | 21812 | 299 | 85 | 116 |
| Aug 24 | 6140 | 21835 | 299 | 85 | 120 |
| Aug 25 | 6163 | 21869 | 302 | 85 | 127 |
| Aug 26 | 6180 | 21905 | 303 | 85 | 137 |
| Aug 27 | 6201 | 21931 | 306 | 85 | 150 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.0 | 5.3% | 8 | 0.15% |
| 10-19 | 3 | 1.6 | 12.7% | 19 | 0.35% |
| 20-29 | 2 | 1.1 | 9.3% | 14 | 0.31% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 2.7 | 16.7% | 25 | 0.46% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 2.7 | 15.3% | 23 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 2.1 | 16.7% | 25 | 0.37% |
| 60-69 | 1 | 1.9 | 10.7% | 16 | 0.25% |
| 70+ | 6 | 2.1 | 13.3% | 20 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 21 | 15.3 | 100% | 150 | 0.33% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | 13311 | 62841 | 497 | 92 | 269 |
| Aug 22 | 13339 | 62915 | 494 | 92 | 274 |
| Aug 23 | 13356 | 62960 | 497 | 92 | 252 |
| Aug 24 | 13425 | 63098 | 501 | 92 | 297 |
| Aug 25 | 13493 | 63238 | 506 | 92 | 355 |
| Aug 26 | 13551 | 63418 | 507 | 92 | 398 |
| Aug 27 | 13619 | 63551 | 511 | 92 | 442 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 5.6 | 9.3% | 41 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 7.1 | 15.6% | 69 | 0.42% |
| 20-29 | 16 | 9.6 | 20.1% | 89 | 0.42% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 8.0 | 16.1% | 71 | 0.52% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 7.0 | 14.7% | 65 | 0.48% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 6.4 | 12.9% | 57 | 0.4% |
| 60-69 | 2 | 1.9 | 4.5% | 20 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 10 | 3.7 | 6.8% | 30 | 0.23% |
| All ages | 68 | 49.3 | 100% | 442 | 0.37% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | 48019 | 378939 | 1720 | 319 | 1024 |
| Aug 22 | 48067 | 379182 | 1719 | 319 | 972 |
| Aug 23 | 48142 | 379609 | 1722 | 319 | 890 |
| Aug 24 | 48212 | 380036 | 1706 | 320 | 876 |
| Aug 25 | 48352 | 380607 | 1709 | 320 | 943 |
| Aug 26 | 48467 | 381568 | 1716 | 320 | 962 |
| Aug 27 | 48657 | 382023 | 1722 | 320 | 1074 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 16 | 14.7 | 13.4% | 144 | 0.24% |
| 10-19 | 23 | 13.0 | 11.1% | 119 | 0.17% |
| 20-29 | 38 | 21.0 | 19.5% | 209 | 0.2% |
| 30-39 | 42 | 21.4 | 18.9% | 203 | 0.27% |
| 40-49 | 36 | 16.1 | 15.6% | 168 | 0.26% |
| 50-59 | 13 | 8.6 | 9.8% | 105 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 14 | 7.6 | 6.8% | 73 | 0.13% |
| 70+ | 8 | 5.6 | 4.9% | 53 | 0.11% |
| All ages | 190 | 108.0 | 100% | 1074 | 0.2% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21 | 645977 | 3113256 | 34913 | 7520 | 12844 |
| Aug 22 | 646711 | 3116501 | 34705 | 7520 | 12181 |
| Aug 23 | 647489 | 3119761 | 34998 | 7521 | 11145 |
| Aug 24 | 649671 | 3122983 | 35103 | 7549 | 12332 |
| Aug 25 | 651341 | 3128030 | 35230 | 7558 | 13383 |
| Aug 26 | 653363 | 3135681 | 35358 | 7570 | 14792 |
| Aug 27 | 655667 | 3140267 | 35448 | 7577 | 15419 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 210 | 144.7 | 9.4% | 1448 | 0.23% |
| 10-19 | 295 | 197.1 | 12.4% | 1918 | 0.25% |
| 20-29 | 403 | 267.9 | 16.8% | 2598 | 0.34% |
| 30-39 | 413 | 273.0 | 16.9% | 2603 | 0.34% |
| 40-49 | 328 | 219.7 | 13.9% | 2144 | 0.31% |
| 50-59 | 272 | 201.7 | 12.9% | 1988 | 0.24% |
| 60-69 | 201 | 151.4 | 9.5% | 1461 | 0.19% |
| 70+ | 182 | 132.0 | 8.2% | 1259 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 2304 | 1587.6 | 100% | 15419 | 0.26% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | 29.4 | 40.1 | 37.9 | 28.6 | 33.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 42.8 | 22.7 | 20.7 | 35.6% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 41.3 | 15.3 | 10.3 | 39.5% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 43.6 | 43.5 | 46.5 | 49.3 | 23.6 | 30% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25.7 | 22.7 | 26.9 | 108 | 91.6 | 17.2% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 33.2 | 31.6 | 43.2 | 1587.6 | 1182.1 | 26% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-09-17 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7000"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges